One of the great unsolved problems in modern planetary science is written on the surface of Mars.

Mars has canyons that were carved by rivers, so it was once warm enough for liquid water. How—and why—did it become it a barren desert today?

A study led by University of Chicago planetary scientist Edwin Kite puts forth a new explanation for why Mars never seems to stay balmy for long. Published July 2 in Nature, their model suggests that the periods of liquid water we see in the past were initiated by the sun brightening, and that conditions on Mars mean it trends towards desert over time—in contrast to Earth, which has stayed habitable over time.

The study builds on findings from NASA’s Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity mission that were announced in April: the rover finally found rocks rich in carbonate minerals, which could explain where Mars’ atmosphere went.

“For years, we’ve had this huge unanswered question for why Earth has managed to keep its habitability while Mars lost it,” said Kite, an associate professor of geophysical sciences who is a participating scientist for the Curiosity mission. “Our models suggest that periods of habitability on Mars have been the exception, rather than the rule, and that Mars generally self-regulates as a desert planet.”

A ‘golden age’ of Mars science
Mars has almost the same makeup as Earth—it’s a rocky planet, with plenty of carbon and water, near enough to the sun to be warmed but not cooked by it—and yet today it’s a frozen desert, while Earth teems with life. For years, scientists have been searching for an answer to why you are reading this from Earth and not Mars.

The mystery deepened when we were able to see river-carved valleys and old lakebeds on the surface of Mars, showing the planet at some point did have a climate that was warm enough for liquid water.

“Fortunately, Mars preserves a trace of that environmental catastrophe in the rocks on its surface,” Kite said. “And today we're in a golden age of Mars science, with two plutonium-powered rovers on the surface and an international fleet of spacecraft in orbit that allow us to deeply explore the planet for these traces.”

A photo of the Mars curiosity rover against a reddish desert landscape.
The data was provided by NASA’s Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity rover, shown here taking a “selfie” in 2019 as it traveled.Photo by NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS.
When it comes to keeping a planet balmy and mild, it isn’t enough just to start out that way—there need to be mechanisms for stability over time that can respond to changes on and around the planet.

Scientists think that Earth does this through a finely balanced system that moves carbon from sky to rock and back again. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere warms the planet, but warmer temperatures also speed up reactions that lock up carbon dioxide into rock, which eventually counteracts the temperature rise. Eventually, carbon leaks back out into the atmosphere via volcanic eruptions. Over millions of years, this cycle appears to have kept Earth relatively stable and hospitable for life.

On Mars, the researchers suggested, a similar cycle could also take place—but a self-limiting one.

It hinges on the fact that our sun's brightness rises very, very slowly over time—about 8 percent per billion years. As the sun brightens, the scientists hypothesize, liquid water begins running on Mars. But then this water starts causing carbon dioxide to get locked into rocks, as it does on Earth, which swings the planet back to cold and barren desert.

“In contrast to Earth, where there are always some volcanoes erupting, Mars right now is volcanically dormant, and the average rate of volcanic outgassing on Mars is slow,” explained Kite. “So in that situation, you don't really have a balance between carbon dioxide in and carbon dioxide out, because if you have even a little bit of liquid water, you're going to draw down carbon dioxide through carbonate formation.”

The group built extensive models showing how these swings could happen. They suggest that Mars experiences short periods of liquid water, followed by 100-million-year-long periods of desert. Needless to say, a 100-million-year-long gap in habitability is bad for life.

A Martian mystery
The explanation was made possible by Curiosity’s discovery, announced earlier this year, of carbonate-rich rocks on Mars’ surface. This had been a missing piece of the puzzle for years, the scientists explained.

To have had liquid water, Mars had to have a thicker atmosphere made up of a greenhouse gas like carbon dioxide. But today there’s very little atmosphere, leaving a puzzle of where the carbon went.

“People have been looking for a tomb for the atmosphere for years,” said Kite.

The simplest explanation would be that it was drawn down into rocks, as it is on Earth, but the first rover tests hadn’t turned up any evidence of carbonate-rich rocks.

It took Curiosity’s journey up a Martian mountain named Mt. Sharp to finally find these carbonate rocks. As it continues, further tests will show whether the carbonate is as widespread as researchers suspect.

“It really is something you cannot know until you have a rover on the surface,” said study coauthor Benjamin Tutolo, a professor at the University of Calgary. “The chemistry and mineralogy measurements they provide really are essential in our continuing quest to understand how and why planets stay habitable, in order to search for other hospitable worlds out in the universe.”

UChicago postdoctoral researcher Madison L. Turner was also a co-author on the study, in addition to co-authors with the University of Calgary, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA Ames Research Center, California Institute of Technology, Brown University and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Citation: “Carbonate formation and fluctuating habitability on Mars.” Kite et al, Nature, July 2, 2025.

Funding: NASA.

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